I could read the paper because of your clear explanations. The plotting is interesting, though I am not well versed on higher end statistical methods; I'd need a slowed down walk through. I would love for these algorithms to be subjected to the power cracking methods, of course. Your observation of "over engineered" begs it.
Although I will never decipher all this, I do look for "bingos." And your second paper gave me a few that make me very happy. Thank you very much!
Our "new" ID numbers which I describe as 9 digits and start with "160" hit at the same 2018 / 2019 time period of NJ's DIDs. "LIDs are 9 digit numbers analytically divided into -Left LID- (first 3 digits) and -Right LID- (remaining 6 digits)."
Our old voter ID numbers go from single digit (which look impossible...were people still riding in covered wagons and we weren't yet a state???) to 6 digits (those look like groups of numbers assigned to specific counties) and then there are the 1Ms and 2Ms (7 digit numbers). What a mess! There are only 1.3M records.
Also, "For each Right DID range, most numbers are assigned to a single "Priority County" with smaller distributions to others." Bingo.
In this supposedly "Blue" state, with 3 U.S. congresstional districts, your paper allows me to imagine just how the 2022 primary on the "Red" side of things produced results of:
District 2, covering 650 Precincts spread across 15 counties, generated 28,513 votes for the Republican candidate running unopposed, while
District 3, covering 747 Precincts spread across 18 counties, generated 28,577 votes for the Republican candidate running unopposed.
4 counties have "overlap" between Congressional Districts 2 & 3. It seems they would have to either use some other numeric field to separate out democrats from republicans or use separate democrat and republican copies of the database to run the primaries. We were a closed party primary state in 2022, I believe.
Districts 2 & 3 cover about 75% of the area of the state. That translates to about 58 million acres.
All of New Jersey is about 5 million acres. Our "results" for District 2 & 3 (R) U.S. Rep. Primary in 2022 are impossible.
I appreciate your work. Without it, I would have had a "hard stop" 2 years ago.
Thank you, hopefully Trump and his team find your hard work and acknowledge it🙏🏼🙏🏼
That has happened. ;)
Wow, congrats! I try to bring up the algorithms in the rolls often on X, although I am shadow band.
I made a convenient shortcut to this newest paper of yours. Since it’s the 2nd one I did this for, I named it: tinyURL.com/ZarkPaper2
( The first one is at: tinyURL.com/ZarkPaper )
Both links (and much more related pertinent multimedia) can be found in link collection:
tinyURL.com/ZarkPaperExplained
Thank you for sharing all this meticulous research!
Thank you!
Thank you (again) for all your hard work! 🙏
I was unable to access the JIW article, but was able to access/download the other. Thank you for your diligent work!
Excellent.
I could read the paper because of your clear explanations. The plotting is interesting, though I am not well versed on higher end statistical methods; I'd need a slowed down walk through. I would love for these algorithms to be subjected to the power cracking methods, of course. Your observation of "over engineered" begs it.
Well done, both papers.
Although I will never decipher all this, I do look for "bingos." And your second paper gave me a few that make me very happy. Thank you very much!
Our "new" ID numbers which I describe as 9 digits and start with "160" hit at the same 2018 / 2019 time period of NJ's DIDs. "LIDs are 9 digit numbers analytically divided into -Left LID- (first 3 digits) and -Right LID- (remaining 6 digits)."
Our old voter ID numbers go from single digit (which look impossible...were people still riding in covered wagons and we weren't yet a state???) to 6 digits (those look like groups of numbers assigned to specific counties) and then there are the 1Ms and 2Ms (7 digit numbers). What a mess! There are only 1.3M records.
Also, "For each Right DID range, most numbers are assigned to a single "Priority County" with smaller distributions to others." Bingo.
In this supposedly "Blue" state, with 3 U.S. congresstional districts, your paper allows me to imagine just how the 2022 primary on the "Red" side of things produced results of:
District 2, covering 650 Precincts spread across 15 counties, generated 28,513 votes for the Republican candidate running unopposed, while
District 3, covering 747 Precincts spread across 18 counties, generated 28,577 votes for the Republican candidate running unopposed.
4 counties have "overlap" between Congressional Districts 2 & 3. It seems they would have to either use some other numeric field to separate out democrats from republicans or use separate democrat and republican copies of the database to run the primaries. We were a closed party primary state in 2022, I believe.
Districts 2 & 3 cover about 75% of the area of the state. That translates to about 58 million acres.
All of New Jersey is about 5 million acres. Our "results" for District 2 & 3 (R) U.S. Rep. Primary in 2022 are impossible.
I appreciate your work. Without it, I would have had a "hard stop" 2 years ago.