I’ve been wanting to get an idea of how much fraud is too much for some time. This analysis is rough, but gives an idea how difficult it is to deal with election fraud. In this case, I am only looking at adding fake votes, in 5% increments, to see how it affects the race. The base values are from New York’s 2020 election.
The question this table tries to answer is whether the amount of fraud makes it impossible to achieve a victory if constrained by legitimate votes. That is, even if a candidate received a clear majority of the legitimate vote, he would still lose due to fraud.
This scenario shows that the tipping point occurs somewhere between 20% and 25% of the total votes counted (including fake votes). At those levels, it is impossible to win with less than 70-75% of the vote. It also shows that if the 2020 election was “safe and secure,” Trump’s 3,193,126 votes would have been enough to win only if there had been about 6,386,250 votes cast, not the 8,515,000 counted. Meaning, unless there were about 2,000,000 fake votes or more, he would have lost New York no matter what.
The scenario is more discouraging if subtractive fraud is taken into account. This is when votes are subtracted from one candidate and given to the other, as apparently happened multiple times in the 2020 election, and afterward as well, in multiple states.
In these two examples, the voter turnout is only 65%. Meaning, there is a lot of room for more fraud, if needed. The average for the entire United States is 66.7%, but is as high as 80% in Minnesota and as low as 55% in Oklahoma. The higher rates may correlate to more fraud, but this cannot be seen by looking at the turnout rate alone. Pennsylvania has many indicators that considerable fraud occurred there, but it’s turnout rate was 71%. This is high, but only enough to put it in 18th place nationwide.
The good news is that our elections aren’t decided by the popular vote, but the electoral college. All of the votes could be fraudulent in some states and it wouldn’t make any difference, provided other states ran their contests honestly.
If, for instance, 100% of New York and California’s votes were fraudulent, and together equalled ten times the population of the solar system, it wouldn’t be enough to guarantee victory. This is the beauty of the electoral college.
I just did a quick analysis of each state’s results in 2020 to get an idea what we might expect in 2024. The first thing I see is that Trump won 125 electoral votes in states with more than a 10% margin of victory. He is unlikely to lose those states. This is because their people are firmly behind him, and those same states have been resistant to laws that weaken protections against election fraud. This is a key point.
As crooked as Georgia was in 2020, and may still be, in the years since the 2020 election, they have tightened election laws in such a way that it would be difficult to commit the same types of fraud committed in 2020. In combination with Biden’s puny 0.26% victory margin in that state, I think Trump will win Georgia in 2024.
Arizona, though won by Biden with a similarly tiny margin, may be lost to Trump due to transparently corrupt officials. Michigan’s 16 votes went to Biden in 2020, but may go to Trump in 2024 thanks to the efforts of election integrity proponents in that state. The officials appear to be as corrupt now as they were then, but some legislative and judicial victories have occurred, with more on the way. The same appears to be happening with Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes.
If these come to pass as I expect, Pennsylvania will be the deciding state. They have not convincingly shored up their elections against fraud, but the colossal amount of fraud likely committed in 2020 was only enough to give Biden a 1.18% victory over Trump. This means that the people of Pennsylvania are likely dramatically opposed to a Biden victory and may yet enjoy some victories for election integrity. One unexpected bright spot is senator John Fetterman, who sounds more reasonable every day.
Thank you for applying your skills and taking the time to review all the states. We All need to push in the right direction together. On the southern boarder, only TX has some "elected" officials fighting "illegal" (as Joe Biden said last night) immigration. NM, AZ, and CA are wide open with "elected" wannabes grifting off the situation. Beware of registrations going through "Human Services" agencies, as if the rolls weren't already enough of a complete fraud. I am making templates to watch grouped precinct numbers closely during the elections, both primary and general, so we can compare back to 2020 where they cheated themselves cross-eyed. We do need more people reading the numbers and getting familiar with them.
The numbers this time will be an even bigger mess. "They jump off the page."
I appreciate you very much!
Good verification that the electoral college was a pretty bright idea.