The New Hampshire results are amazing because they show Biden’s desperation. Trump and Biden won their respective primaries, as expected. Haley had a very respectable showing, with 43.3% of the vote, compared to Trump’s 54.4%. At first glance, this makes Biden look stronger, because he won his primary with 67.3% of the vote.
The explanation is that Haley voters are actually Biden voters trying to monkey with the Republican primary. Some of these voters admitted as much live on CNN. After voting in the Republican primary, they told interviewers they voted for Haley as a vote against Trump, but will vote for Biden in the General Election.
If you add in that most of Haley’s financial support comes from Democrat donors, the results start making more sense. Halley cut into Trump’s victory margin, and came about as close as she’s ever going to get to beating him. It wasn’t enough by 11 points. In other words, what is normally considered a huge loss.
However, Haley didn’t just cut into Trump’s victory margin, but Biden’s also. Remember, Haley voters are primarily Biden voters. Every Haley voter in last night’s primaries, didn’t vote for Biden.
If you look at how many people voted in total, the effect of this becomes more interesting. As of the moment I write this, there were 301,854 ballots cast in the Republican primary, according to NBC. On the Democrat side, only 89,858 votes were cast, 65,472 for Biden. This compares to Trump’s 166,900. This means that Trump received more than two and a half times as many votes as Biden. Of course, that doesn’t take into account the Halley effect.
Halley’s 132,871 votes added to Biden’s 65,472 yields 198,343 for Biden as an outside possibility. This is more than Trump received, but it doesn’t take into account the possibility that some Haley voters are Republicans that will vote for Trump if he is the nominee. Some estimates are that about 30% of Haley voters are Republicans. If so, Trump’s share of the Haley vote is 39,861, and Biden’s is 93,009.
Add these numbers to their respective candidate’s totals, and Trump gets 206,761 to Biden’s 158,481. Even if all the Dean Phillips and write-in Democrat votes go to Biden, that only brings his total to 182,867. In other words, a loss of about 11 percent. Remember, Biden supposedly won New Hampshire in 2020.
Haley increasingly looks like a sacrifice play. Democrats now know Trump can’t be beat, even with fraud. This is indicated by the New Hampshire results. By transferring two thirds of Biden’s voters to the Republican primary (that was the sacrifice) they hoped to eject Trump from the race. It wasn’t enough. Trump won, despite the addition of approximately 100,000 Democrat voters to the 301,854 ballots cast in the Republican primary.
This is impressive because the Democrat Haley vote represents about 33% of the total Republican vote. Trump’s advantage is so great that he was able to overcome the equivalent of 33% phantom voters.
In most states, there isn’t a lot of wiggle room for the creation of phantom voters. In normal races, there are enough non-voting residents to create the appearance of victories by adding fake phantom voters. That only works for candidates that aren’t leading by huge margins, as Trump is. The absolute limit before the fraud breaks down is the percentage of non-voting registered voters, which varies between about 20-25%.
If Trump can beat Biden even after injecting the equivalent of 33% phantom voters into the race, the only way to use fraud to beat Trump would break the system. Trump will win.
A great analysis. It does however fly in the face of the MS media position that Halley won or dented Trump's win. Bannon was illogical this morning over this result, and Trump was pissed after Halley declared a win. I'd like to see your analysis in the hands of Trump and Bannon. I hope you have more connections than I.
Math can be difficult to convey to others. You do a beautiful job writing about math! Thank you!